One of the attributes that placed Harry Truman among the greatest presidents of the twentieth century was his personal modesty. He would never allow his acolytes to compare him to his illustrious predecessor Franklin Roosevelt.
However, no such humility has constrained the six Democrats who subsequently attained the nation’s highest office. In the buoyant days between election and the completion of their first “Hundred Days,” all of them – JFK, LBJ, Carter, Clinton, Obama, and Biden- encouraged supporters and media alike to portray their grand aspirations by comparisons to the man who led the country through the Great Depression and a World War.
While it is obviously too soon to pass judgement on the Biden presidency, all of the others fell woefully short of the FDR standard. Only one—LBJ—left behind a legislative legacy that significantly changed America.
Any attempt to predict likely results for President Biden should begin by examining the factors that brought success for Roosevelt and Johnson. There are two that were decisive.
First, both men won election in a landslide that entailed an unambiguous mandate from the American people. FDR carried 42 of the then 48 states. His Electoral College total was 472 to 59 for Herbert Hoover. LBJ carried 44 of 50 states and his Electoral College total was 486 to 52 for Barry Goldwater.
The Presidential election of 2020 was many things, but it was not a landslide or an unambiguous mandate from the American people. Both candidates carried 25 states, and Biden’s Electoral College margin over Donald Trump was a decisive but not overwhelming 306 to 232.
The second factor that underlay the great legislative victories of both FDR and LBJ was their party’s huge majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Roosevelt’s Democrats commanded the 73rd Congress (1933-1935) by a margin over Republicans of 59 to 36 (1 seat held by Minnesota’s Progressive Farm Labor Party) in the Senate and 313 to 117 (5 seats held by the Farm Labor party) in the House.
Similarly, LBJ controlled the 89th Congress (1965-1967) with Democratic majorities over Republicans of 68 to 32 in the Senate and 295 to 140 in the House. Also significant is that the landmark triumphs of both Presidents (e.g., Social Security and Medicare) were popular and well-crafted to a point that did win some Republican votes.
In stark contrast is today’s 117th Congress, which is the most closely divided in modern history. Each party holds 50 seats in the Senate, and Democrats hold a wafer-thin majority in the House of 222 seats versus 213 for Republicans.
Further clouding President Biden’s chances of future legislative success is the grim track record of his four Democratic predecessors in their first mid-term elections. In those elections—1966, 1978, 1994, and 2010—Democrats lost an average of 45 seats in the House and 5 seats in the Senate.
In one respect President Biden does bear comparison with FDR and LBJ, namely the breathtaking scope of the agenda he proposes for utterly transforming American government and society. However, lacking those presidents’ huge congressional majorities, any likelihood of Biden’s agenda becoming law has to be seen as a mirage.
If President Biden suffers the traditional mid-term losses—an outcome made even more likely by the constitutionally mandated redistricting process—then perhaps his best chance of regaining momentum would be to follow the example of Bill Clinton, who achieved one of the most dramatic reversals of fortune in American political history through a striking embrace of bipartisanship.
After a stunning mid-term defeat in 1994, which gave Republican’s control of both Senate and House for the first time in forty-two years, Clinton spoke boldly in his 1995 State of the Union Address, memorably declaring that “the era of big government is over.”
He then reached out to the Republican leadership, Senator Trent Lott and Speaker Newt Gingric, to craft a historic welfare reform bill that became law via large, genuinely bipartisan majorities in both chambers. This law infuriated the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, but it dramatically reduced welfare rolls and lifted millions of Americans out of poverty. It also ensured Bill Clinton’s reelection in 1996.
Last year Joe Biden campaigned and won election as a moderate who could unify the country. To date his administration has been anything but moderate and the only thing he has unified is the Republican Party—in solid opposition to what they see as the dangerous overreach of his agenda.
It just might be that future events will require President Biden to govern as the moderate he promised to be.
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William Moloney is a Fellow in Conservative Thought at Colorado Christian University’s Centennial Institute who studied at Oxford and the University of London and received his Doctorate from Harvard University. He is a former Colorado Commissioner of Education.