The historical parallels are eerie. A sitting Democratic president is politically wounded—his polls sinking, along with those of the distant war he sponsored.
Plagued by urban violence and racial tension, but still determined to seal his legacy thru reelection, he finds his seemingly certain nomination improbably challenged by a member of his own party bearing a famous name. The commonality between today and 1968 is that famous name: Robert F. Kennedy.
Like his distant Democratic predecessors Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson, whose presidencies were ended by a combination of unpopular wars, domestic turmoil, and internal party unrest, Joe Biden likely did not foresee such a scenario unfolding—but beyond a doubt, he will do everything in his power to avoid their ultimate fate.
At present, relatively few people are taking Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s White House challenge seriously. With near unanimity, the media has dismissed him as a bizarre “anti-vaxxer”, a political lightweight with no track record, whose candidacy has been rejected even by virtually all members of his famous family.
Although the Kennedy name does not have the political magnetism of days gone by, nevertheless for older Democrat voters, it remains a beacon from a more idealistic time in their party's history.
More importantly, when a majority of Democrats tell pollsters that Biden shouldn't seek their party's nomination, Kennedy becomes a plausible alternative—however remote—to a reality that alarms them greatly, particularly when no prominent Democrat has dared to mount a challenge.
While simple desperation might explain the lure of Kennedy for some disaffected Democrats, is there any evidence that his appeal could extend to the wider electorate?
Given that 70% of the total electorate doesn't want Biden to run, and even allowing that large numbers would still vote for him if he was the nominee, it is abundantly clear that the center and the left of the American political spectrum urgently wants someone else to head the Democratic ticket— and RFK Jr, once his reasons for running and his positions on the major issues of the day become widely known, thus has a real chance to win his party's nomination.
At the heart of the Kennedy candidacy is a great paradox. He is seeking to be the nominee of a party the central policies of which he strongly opposes.
As a declared candidate descended from Democratic Party legends, already polling at a surprising 21%, Kennedy cannot be totally ignored by the media. Those who watched his lengthy interviews on CNN and Fox saw a man of strong conviction skillfully defending himself and offering a consistent vision of what he believes would be a better Democratic Party and a better America.
For both Republicans and Democrats, RFK Jr.’s appeal ultimately rests on the elusive but potent phenomenon of “hope.”
Republicans could hope that he might reverse, or at least significantly modify, policies that they detest and believe to be existential threats to the country's future—war, energy, the border, the economy, “ wokeness” et al.
Democrats, particularly the party’s dominant progressives who fearful that a Republican victory could terminate their cherished agenda for national “transformation”—especially the all-encompassing issue of climate change—could hope that Kennedy might be the one candidate who could deliver a convincing electoral victory and thereafter be led by strong progressive congressional leadership to see the wisdom of that agenda.
Much the same, after all, happened with other Democratic “outsiders” like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton after they got to the White House.
In 2020, Joe Biden persuaded the progressives of his party that he could (1) defeat the un-electable Bernie Sanders (I-Vt), and then, as president, (2) energetically deliver portions of Sanders’ radical agenda.
He proceeded to do both. Biden, however, also promised the American people that he would (3) govern as a traditional Democrat and, most importantly, (4) thereby unify and heal a dangerously polarized country. He has of course done neither.
So now comes Robert Kennedy, pledging to redeem both these broken promises.
It is instructive (and more than a little melancholy) to go back in time to November 26, 1967, and watch Bobby, RFK Sr, on CBS “Face the Nation” walk a fine line between expressing his great respect for his president while passionately excoriating his policies. (Look it up on YouTube.)
In his every public appearance to date, Bobby’s son has demonstrated a stunningly similar skill and purpose. We know the tragic ending of the father's 1968 quest. But we cannot discern how the similar mission his son has chosen will unfold.
Assuredly, though, RFK Jr’s journey to 2024 will be characterized by some of the same high drama and allure of possibility that have been the Kennedy dynasty’s signature ever since JFK, Jack, first sought national office in 1956. Camelot dies hard.
William Moloney is a Senior Fellow in Conservative Thought at Colorado Christian University’s Centennial Institute who studied at Oxford and the University of London and received his Doctorate at Harvard University. He is a former Colorado Commissioner of Education.