Four times in the last 72 years, Democratic presidents pursuing plausible hopes of re-election have seen those ambitions defeated owing to failures in foreign and domestic policy which provoked political challenges from within their own party. These recurring events would also give instruction to enemies and allies alike concerning the realities of American politics particularly during Democratic administrations
In 1952 President Harry Truman, burdened by abysmal approval ratings, a stalemated Korean War and an electoral challenge by a fellow Democrat, withdrew from the race after being upset in the New Hampshire primary by Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver.
In 1968 president Lyndon Johnson suffered a near-defeat in the New Hampshire primary by the relatively unknown Eugene McCarthy, followed four days later by the entry into the race of Robert Kennedy—both Democratic senators running in opposition to the deeply unpopular Vietnam War. Two weeks later LBJ ended his candidacy.
In 1980 President Jimmy Carter—widely blamed for economic “stagflation, “ Soviet rampages in Afghanistan and Africa, and above all his failure to rescue the American hostages held prisoner in Iran— managed to win his party's nomination despite losing 15 primaries to his challenger, Senator Edward Kennedy. This however proved to be a pyrrhic victory as he was subsequently crushed in a 44-state landslide by Republican Ronald Reagan.
In 2024 President Joe Biden sought re-election despite abysmal approval ratings, a humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, a stalemated proxy war in Ukraine, millions of illegal immigrants flooding across the southern border, run-away inflation, a soaring debt-to-GDP ratio, surging crime rates, and serious doubts about his age and mental acuity.
Remarkably he succeeded in becoming his party’s presumptive nominee— having garnered 14 million votes in winning every primary—thanks to his party’s willingness to illicitly deny ballot access to his only credible Democratic challenger—Robert Kennedy Jr—and to explain away (aided by a complicit media) the above-noted failures as minor blemishes on the record of “one of the greatest Presidents of modern times” (Chuck Schumer ), who “rightly deserves a place on Mount Rushmore”( Nancy Pelosi).
Nemesis however awaited in the form of an extraordinary and still unexplained decision to meet former President Donald Trump in a debate months before the traditional post-convention schedule. The subsequent nationally televised 90-minute debate debacle cruelly exposed Biden’s self-evidently diminished cognitive capacities that his staff had concealed from the American public for over a year.
Numerous panicking Democratic officials and even liberal media outlets (New York Times, Washington Post) called on Biden to step aside as a candidate or even resign as President. However, many other officials and White House spokesmen rallied to his side, claiming he had merely had a “bad night“ (e.g. "over-work “or “jet lag”). President Biden repeatedly stated he had “won the nomination fair and square,” and “wasn't going anywhere.”
However subsequent public appearances reinforced perceptions of mental decline and just two days after announcing several future campaign events he suddenly announced he was “stepping aside for the good of the party,” leaving much speculation regarding who and what had caused this reversal.
President Biden's departure left the Democrats with the dilemma of what to do with Vice President Kamala Harris, whose dismal public approval ratings—even lower than Biden's—had led many in the party to consider replacing her on the ticket. After a brief period of confusion, including some leaders proposing an unfeasible “mini primary,” Democrats succumbed to the reality of what their party had become.
Because of her well-documented left-wing policy stances, Harris had become the darling of the party's progressives. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren were her earliest and most fervent champions. For today's Democratic party –built on a foundation of identity politics with race and gender as absolute Holy Writ –to kick to the curb “a woman of color” who had ascended to the second highest office in the land was simply unthinkable.
Any further doubts about who runs the Democratic party were dispelled when more plausible centrists— Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly—were bypassed as vice-presidential candidates in favor of the little-known but decidedly leftist Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz. Also beyond doubt is the Democratic party's awareness of their presidential candidate’s limitations as demonstrated by the absence of a single press conference or live media interview in the first six weeks following her selection.
Anxiety about how far this bubble-wrapped candidacy—already drawing comparisons to Joe Biden's 2020 “basement campaign"—can go, is certain to cause sleepless nights for millions of Americans over the next two months.
William Moloney studied history and politics at Oxford and the University of London and received his doctorate from Harvard University. His columns have appeared in the Wall St. Journal, the Hill, USA Today, Washington Post, Washington Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Baltimore Sun, Denver Post, and Human Events.