The leading governments of NATO are presently undergoing the most sweeping political upheaval since the founding of the alliance in 1949. While many causes of this tumult are country-specific, four issues are common to all—uncontrolled immigration, the unanticipated cost of the Green Revolution, metastasizing income inequality resulting from globalization, and growing popular resentment of long-dominant political elites.
The cumulative effect of these issues which have been percolating over the last decade has brought about a dramatic realignment of traditional patterns of political allegiance. What has emerged from this transformation is a new era of class conflict in which working- and lower- middle-class voters have turned against the political parties of the Left—Liberals in Canada, Democrats in the US, and Socialists in Europe—who had long been their benefactors.
Perhaps the best symbol of the simmering anger of the “lower orders " might be the iconic figure of the crazed news anchor portrayed by Peter Finch in the 1976 film Network, who ends a manic on-air rant by telling his millions of viewers to stick their heads out the window and start yelling, " I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it any more!” Politically this has led significant numbers of voters to find new leaders—pejoratively designated as “populists”—who give voice and direction to a desire to overthrow establishment elites self-described as “progressives."
These trends can be seen in clearer focus by looking at individual NATO governments which can be fairly described as transiting from Progressivism to Populism.
Italy Long the exemplar of political instability with its revolving-door governments and perpetual financial crisis, Italy now has arguably the most stable government among the major NATO nations. Its populist Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—ranked by Politico as “Europe's most powerful person”—has adroitly balanced strong support for NATO and Ukraine with Euroskepticism, strict immigration policies, and praise for Donald Trump.
France Originally hailed as the brilliant and bold newcomer who could make the structural changes needed to reform France’s sclerotic economy, President Emmanuel Macron was ultimately defeated by the implacable opposition of public-sector unions and the near- impossibility of governing a country with 38 political parties. As a term-limited lame duck his final mission is to thwart the growing electoral strength of populist Marine Le Pen's National Rally—now France's largest single party.
Germany For decades Europe's model of political order and economic strength, Germany today is the least stable major NATO government. Facing national elections in February that will finalize the collapse of his fragile three-party coalition—recently forced to resign over insoluble financial and political woes—Chancellor Olaf Scholz becomes the first European leader driven from office by fallout from the Ukraine war. These elections will have a central purpose of neutralizing the rising electoral strength of the populist Alternative for Germany (AFD), which the country's establishment elites have universally, albeit inaccurately, demonized as a crypto - Nazi “threat to democracy.”
Great Britain (U.K.) Last year's British elections were a stunning example of how the usually reliable Anglo-American two-party electoral system can result in a spectacular denial of popular will when one of the two major political parties breaks apart. Thus did the Labour party have its lowest percentage of the popular vote in this century, yet gain a huge majority of parliamentary seats, owing to a destructive civil war within the grossly mismanaged Conservative party. The anomalous result is that the breakaway populist party Reform UK now leads all polls, but the country remains mired in the consequences of years of progressive misrule delivered up by both Conservatives and Labour.
Canada After presiding over 11 years of radical progressive governance Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was just recently forced to resign over tanking approval ratings and open revolt within his own party, a development directly reflecting the fact that the Conservative party has a huge lead in all polls projecting the upcoming national elections.
USA The widely feared and cheered return of Donald Trump to the American Presidency has now become the fulcrum of geo-strategic planning throughout the world. The astoundingly improbable resurrection of this unpredictable American Phoenix will undoubtedly change history—but whether for a good or ill we cannot presently say.
Clearly his return has brought delight to populists and despair to progressives. The contest between these two dynamic forces is changed but not ended. Speaking of an earlier turning point in history Churchill may have said it best: " Events are in the Saddle …. The terrible Ifs accumulate.”
William Moloney studied history and politics at Oxford and the University of London and received his Doctorate from Harvard University. His articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The Hill, Washington Post, Washington Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Baltimore Sun, Denver Post and Human Events.
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