(By Paul Prentice) We hear all the time about how COVID shut down the economy. That is incorrect; COVID did not shut down the economy, the political response to COVID shut down the economy. There were a series of policy choices at all levels of state and local government across the land. The economic damage from those choices is immense. This is not a natural disaster, it is a man-made disaster.
National data show that U.S. real GDP fell at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter, and was followed by 32% decline in the second quarter. This is the worst economic performance since the Great Depression. The total value in lost economic activity is $2.26 trillion.
The decline in total U.S. employment was 25.4 million jobs lost--about 16% of all US jobs. There has been an estimated permanent loss of 7.5 million small businesses. This includes a loss of 40% of all minority-owned small businesses. It is also estimated that 60% of restaurants will not survive.
In Colorado, real GDP fell at an annual rate of 4% in the first quarter, about equal to the national decline. Second-quarter data is not yet available but we can expect that Colorado followed the national trend with about a 30% decline. The Colorado peak-to-trough decline in total employment was 343,500 jobs lost--about 12% of all CO jobs
A survey by the group Keep Colorado Free and Open evaluated the impact of COVID on local businesses. The survey found that 19% of businesses re-opened in defiance of the governor’s orders. Of those who re-opened in defiance, 21% had their business license threatened by the health department. The average reported loss was over $100,000 so far this year. Could you survive a $100,000 loss in income?
Those are all numbers, but what does it mean to shut down an economy? The economy is the means by which we earn a living. It is how we feed our families and care for our loved ones. It is the path to a more prosperous life for us and our children. The economy is us; it is you. To shut down the economy is to shut down not just our means of earning a living, but it is to shut down our very lives.
I am not a Biblical scholar, but I do know that in order to be free, we must have a free economy, the right to buy and sell. And God does want us to be free. The logical conclusion is that God wants us to have a free economy. We are put on earth to labor, to love, and to worship God.
Without labor, we cannot survive. God wants us to survive. God wants us to work. “Now we command and exhort in the Lord Jesus Christ to do their work in quietness and earn their own living” (2 Thes. 3:10-12).
Those in favor of an economic shutdown argue that it is worth it, to save lives. But that is not what the medical science shows. The COVID data is vastly exaggerated. Hospitals are provided with financial incentives to report inflated COVID infections and also inflated COVID deaths.
More testing shows more cases; it does not mean more spread. The testing is so advanced that it can detect one broken strand of COVID-DNA in one sample. That is then reported as a COVID infection, even though it is not enough viral load to even have symptoms, let alone enough to infect others. National CDC data shows that only 5% of reported COVID deaths were from COVID alone. The other 95% had one or more co-morbidities.
We should not lockdown those of us not at high risk. The rational response to the pandemic is to identify and quarantine those few who are at high risk of death – the elderly with other major health problems. The rest of us should be set free to live, to labor, to love -- and to worship God. We, as free and sovereign people, are more than capable of weighing the costs and benefits of various mitigation techniques – and then choosing our own path.
A Colorado study showed that 20-30% of reported COVID deaths were not from COVID. Imagine the headlines: “Man eaten by shark, dies of COVID”; or “Woman run over by truck, dies of COVID”. This is only partly in jest; there are actual cases of such from around the world. In the UK, anyone who dies within 3 months of a COVID diagnosis is counted as a COVID death, even actual people who died in a car crash.
But even if we accept the inflated death rates, the risk of dying is minimal. Data from CDC show that in the U.S., you have a 99.94% chance of not dying from COVID. There are very few things in life that have a 99.94% chance of a favorable outcome! And for people aged 0-19, the death rate is 0.00003%, even if they have COVID. That is about as close to zero as you can get.
In Colorado, you have a 99.97% chance of not dying from COVID. That is about the same percentage as in South Dakota that had no lockdown at all. In El Paso County (Colorado Springs), where I live, we have a 99.98% chance of not dying from COVID.
New data from Scotland show that 75% of reported COVID deaths were not from COVID. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida just announced a total and unrestricted reopening of their entire economy – yet they have a higher percentage of at-risk elderly than does Colorado.
Study after study shows that there is zero statistical correlation between the degree of economic lockdown and death rates. This is true of international studies between nations that locked down and those that remained open. It is true for U.S. states whether they had severe lockdowns, partial lockdowns, or no lockdowns at all.
There is no scientific evidence for the efficacy of lockdowns. Yet there is evidence of increased lockdown-related deaths from suicide, drug abuse, domestic abuse, and delayed medical care.
In the false name of avoiding death, our political leaders are preventing us from living. I urge Gov. Jared Polis and all other Colorado state and local officials to follow the data. Follow the science. Open the economy now!
Paul Prentice is a fellow in economics at the Centennial Institute. His career as an economist began in Jimmy Carter’s administration, where what he saw made him a convert to free markets. The Colorado Springs resident is the brother of Backbone columnist David Prentice. Contact: pprentice100@gmail.com
